Escape from Mind-Set Prison: Psychological Impediments to the Intelligence Effort and Structured Analytical Techniques

auteur Kenneth L. Lasoen
tijdschrift Cahiers inlichtingenstudies (ISSN: )
jaargang 2014
aflevering 4
onderdeel Rubrieken
publicatie datum 24 november 2014
taal English
pagina 101
samenvatting

It is the curse of intelligence agencies that their successes must remain hidden and their failures are widely publicized. Nonetheless, intelligence failures are inevitable. It is impossible to predict the future, so ultimately forecasting on threats remains guesswork. However, lessons learned from the past enable us to identify certain mistakes that have contributed to intelligence failures (Gill & Pythian, 2012, p. 169), mistakes that many times originated from psychological mind-sets. As such they act as impediments to the overall intelligence effort and are common causes of failures. With the benefit of hindsight (Omand, 2010, p. 239), attempts have been made to identify them (Bar-Joseph & McDermott, 2010, p. 366-372; Goodman, 2007, p. 529-551; Heuer, 1999, p. 161-170; Marrin, 2004, p. 655-672), and in doing so tentative solutions can be put forward to help prevent these mistakes from further contaminating the intelligence process.