Escape from Mind-Set Prison: Psychological Impediments to the Intelligence Effort and Structured Analytical Techniques

author Kenneth L. Lasoen
journal Cahiers inlichtingenstudies (ISSN: )
volume 2014
issue 4
section Rubrieken
publicatie datum 24 novembre 2014
langue English
pagina 101
abstract

It is the curse of intelligence agencies that their successes must remain hidden and their failures are widely publicized. Nonetheless, intelligence failures are inevitable. It is impossible to predict the future, so ultimately forecasting on threats remains guesswork. However, lessons learned from the past enable us to identify certain mistakes that have contributed to intelligence failures (Gill & Pythian, 2012, p. 169), mistakes that many times originated from psychological mind-sets. As such they act as impediments to the overall intelligence effort and are common causes of failures. With the benefit of hindsight (Omand, 2010, p. 239), attempts have been made to identify them (Bar-Joseph & McDermott, 2010, p. 366-372; Goodman, 2007, p. 529-551; Heuer, 1999, p. 161-170; Marrin, 2004, p. 655-672), and in doing so tentative solutions can be put forward to help prevent these mistakes from further contaminating the intelligence process.