Intelligence-led policing is a concept of policing that has been applied throughout the world. Despite some encouraging reports, the effect of intelligence-led policing is largely unknown. This paper presents a method with which it is possible to identify intelligence-led policing’s potential to increase the effectiveness of policing. The method is based on modelling with system dynamics and takes into account the complexities of intelligence-led policing. For evaluation purposes, this method has been applied using a case study in the Netherlands. The case study shows that collaboratively constructing the system dynamics model provides a more structured insight into the effects of intelligence-led policing. With system dynamics it is possible to support the ‘good stories’ of intelligence-led policing with argumentation explaining the mechanisms in which intelligence-led policing potentially improves effectiveness.